Lichtman’s methodology, developed along with his geophysicist pal Vladimir Keilis-Borok, contains metrics corresponding to incumbency, midterm beneficial properties, third occasion candidates, short-term economic system, long-term economic system, social unrest, White Home scandal, incumbent and challenger charisma, and international coverage failure and success. For the 2024 presidential race, Lichtman believes Harris has eight of those keys in her favor, which he argues is adequate to safe her victory.
“Kamala Harris is sweet on eight of the 13 metrics and due to this fact has the keys to the White Home,” Lichtman states.
The historian is famend for his correct prediction of Donald Trump‘s sudden victory in 2016, regardless of virtually all polls predicting in any other case. Nonetheless, some critics argue that Lichtman had truly forecasted that Trump would win the favored vote, whereas Hillary Clinton secured practically 3 million extra votes than Trump. Lichtman’s solely inaccurate prediction got here in 2000 when he forecasted Al Gore’s victory towards George Bush; however, Gore did win the favored vote, and the electoral faculty final result was determined by the U.S. Supreme Courtroom.
For the 2024 election, Lichtman notes that eight of his keys favor Kamala Harris, whereas three favor Donald Trump. The keys benefiting Trump embody the occasion controlling the White Home gaining seats within the 2022 midterm elections, the sitting president or vice-president working for reelection, and what he sees as Harris’s lack of charisma.
Lichtman elaborates, noting that the remaining two keys—contexts of international coverage failure or success—may nonetheless swing in Trump’s course earlier than the election. Nonetheless, he believes the eight keys favoring Harris are adequate for her to win the presidency.Most conventional polls hold Harris within the lead, although her margin stays throughout the error vary with two months to go earlier than Election Day. It is noteworthy that early voting begins the week after the Presidential debate on September 10.Each campaigns have reported ingrained defections from their opponent’s ranks. The Trump marketing campaign on Tuesday cited help from Harris’ working mate Tim Walz’s estranged brother and different members of the family. On Wednesday, Harris’s marketing campaign was boosted by an endorsement from former Republican lawmaker Liz Cheney. Cheney, a staunch conservative and daughter of former U.S. vice-president Dick Cheney, beforehand opposed Trump. She introduced her determination to vote for Harris, citing the hazard Trump poses to the US.
“I might vote for Harris due to the hazard Trump poses to the US,” said Liz Cheney.
