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How Low cost Drones Are Rewriting the Guidelines of Warfare

admin by admin
June 13, 2025
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How Low cost Drones Are Rewriting the Guidelines of Warfare
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Final evening, Israel launched a serious pre‑emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear and missile applications.

Whereas particulars are nonetheless coming in, early stories counsel that drones and precision munitions performed a key position within the operation.

Irrespective of the placement, autonomous weapons have develop into a defining function of contemporary warfare.

Working example: early Tuesday morning, the sky over Ukraine lit up with orange tracers as drones and missiles rained down on that war-torn nation.

Russia is estimated to have launched seven missiles and 315 drones throughout Ukraine that evening.

Some had been low-flying, GPS-guided Shahed variants, bought from Iran and retrofitted for longer vary and precision.

Some had been decoys, designed to overwhelm air defenses with sheer quantity.

Others had been meant to punch holes in Ukraine’s power infrastructure and harm the morale of its residents.

It was a horrific assault, one of many largest in months. It was one other escalation in a warfare that has gone on for a lot too lengthy.

And it additionally represents a basic shift within the nature of warfare…

Trendy Warfare

For many years, the U.S. and its NATO allies have invested in cutting-edge weapons methods. This sort of superior tech often prices tens of tens of millions of {dollars} per unit and takes years to develop and deploy.

However Tuesday morning’s assault reveals you the way warfare within the fashionable period is altering.

Russia’s Shahed drones have a 2,000 kilometer vary and carry a 40 kilogram excessive explosive payload.

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Supply: Wikimedia Commons

However their vary and firepower aren’t an important elements right here.

It’s their price ticket.

Every Shahed drone is estimated to price $35,000. That’s surprisingly low-cost for contemporary weaponry.

It implies that regardless that these Shahed drones hit their goal lower than 10 % of the time, Russia can hold launching them by the handfuls.

And that’s an enormous lesson the warfare in Ukraine is educating the world.

In fashionable warfare, ok and prepared now usually beats high-end and sluggish to reach. This means the way forward for warfare will likely be one in every of each autonomy and affordability.

Ukraine has discovered this lesson the arduous method.

With the nation going through a recruitment shortfall, it has responded with the one useful resource it has to fight Russia…

Its personal military of cheap drones.

Many of those drones are handmade, in-built garages or small industrial areas in cities like Kyiv and Dnipro.

Some are superior first-person view (FPV) fashions able to navigating Russian jamming methods utilizing on-board AI and real-time path correction.

However others are little greater than hobby-grade quadcopters retrofitted with explosives.

The purpose is that many of those drones are low-cost to supply, quick to construct and simple to deploy at scale.

Turn Your Images On

Supply: Wikimedia Commons

Ukrainian officers say they intention to supply over 1 million drones this 12 months in an try to fulfill Russia’s file variety of drone assaults.

Up to now they’ve skilled some main successes with them.

Swarms of Ukrainian drones have struck oil refineries deep inside Russia. They’ve hunted down tanks, artillery and cell missile launchers. They usually’ve taken out radar installations with $500 quadcopters as an alternative of $100,000 cruise missiles.

The success of drones on each side of this warfare is making a radically completely different price curve for warfare.

It’s additionally forcing the West to rethink its military-industrial technique.

We’ve talked about Trump’s Golden Dome project, and the way privatization ought to pace up the event of protection methods for a army that’s perpetually in procurement.

However this proposed missile protection system can be a large, costly enterprise.

Nonetheless, there are many indicators that the West is studying you don’t essentially want 10 good weapons to win a battle when 1,000 “ok” weapons can get the job executed.

For instance, the Pentagon’s Replicator 1 initiative is a program geared toward deploying hundreds of low-cost autonomous methods to counter Chinese language army progress.

And in Europe, protection ministries are working with automakers like Renault to transform industrial manufacturing traces into drone meeting crops.

This shift to cheaper autonomous weaponry is likely one of the causes Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) was my high inventory suggestion of 2024…

As a result of it builds the software program spine for autonomous protection.

Trendy warfare is all about understanding the battlefield sooner than the enemy, and allocating autonomous methods accordingly.

Drones, loitering munitions, floor robots and autonomous logistics autos all require coordination.

Palantir is changing into the mind for that coordination.

The corporate’s know-how is already serving to Ukraine combine intelligence from a whole bunch of sensors, satellites and battlefield units. Palantir’s AI methods fuse this knowledge into actionable concentrating on and response suggestions inside seconds.

This sort of command-and-control benefit is exactly what’s wanted when a warfare zone turns into a swarm surroundings.

And I imagine it’s solely going to develop into extra related within the years forward.

Right here’s My Take

Earlier this 12 months, Palantir secured a $480 million contract with the U.S. Military partially to deploy its TITAN battlefield intelligence system.

It additionally signed a separate take care of the U.Okay. Ministry of Protection for AI-driven operational planning instruments.

And the corporate is anticipated to be a serious participant in growing Trump’s proposed Golden Dome protection system.

However I don’t need my pleasure about Palantir’s know-how — or its funding potential — to be mistaken for cheerleading.

Warfare is a horror. And what’s taking place in Ukraine is nothing in need of tragic.

But it surely’s essential to grasp that we’re witnessing the tip of 1 army period and the start of one other.

This new period is being outlined by pace, adaptability and software program.

That’s certain to create a brand new class of protection corporations. And the winners will doubtless be those who make autonomous weapons smarter, cheaper and extra deployable in large portions.

Let’s simply hope the machines we construct in the present day finally serve to discourage warfare as an alternative of prolonging it.

Regards,

Ian King's Signature
Ian King
Chief Strategist, Banyan Hill Publishing

Editor’s Notice: We’d love to listen to from you!

If you wish to share your ideas or strategies in regards to the Day by day Disruptor, or if there are any particular matters you’d like us to cowl, simply ship an e mail to dailydisruptor@banyanhill.com.

Don’t fear, we received’t reveal your full title within the occasion we publish a response. So be at liberty to remark away!





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