What’s Behind Walgreens Inventory Plunge: Investor Motion Plan

After years of a downtrend of their worth, shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. NASDAQ: WBA have thrown within the towel this time. In a single day, the inventory is down over 25% in an indication that may’t be taken in some other manner than a ‘run’ message. Nonetheless, some stay hopeful concerning the inventory recovering, however that might be severely disconnected from present fundamentals.

WBA

Walgreens Boots Alliance

$12.10

-0.09 (-0.74%)

(As of 06/28/2024 ET)

52-Week Vary

$11.68

▼

$31.32

Dividend Yield

8.27%

Worth Goal

$20.64

Immediately, buyers get an opportunity to audit the primary drivers behind Walgreens and are available to a better-educated conclusion as as to if the inventory is value retaining on a watchlist. Extra particularly, buyers ought to watch the developments between Walgreens and its most important competitor, CVS Well being Co. NYSE: CVS, as a result of the tendencies couldn’t be extra obvious.

Final however not least, savvy buyers perceive that it isn’t simply Walgreens and CVS at stake on this turbulent time but in addition entities that again Walgreens areas, corresponding to its landlords. In keeping with the saying, one man’s trash is one other man’s treasure, so right here is how to determine the place the true treasure hunt will find yourself.

Walgreens vs. CVS: Financials Break Down the Competitors

There may be, in fact, an excellent purpose for the worth crash on shares of Walgreens, and it’s acquired every part to do with the firm’s financials. For starters, buyers can break aside the newest quarterly outcomes to determine what occurred behind the scenes.

Whereas the corporate’s press launch factors to earnings per share (EPS) practically quadrupling, the fact couldn’t be additional. Subsequently, web earnings and EPS will be simply manipulated. In distinction, different metrics like free money move (working money move minus capital expenditures) can not.

That is why buyers ought to give attention to that as an alternative, and right here’s what they might discover: a web working outflow of $314 million, minus $1.1 billion in capital expenditures, for a adverse free money move of over $1.3 billion. Since an organization can not run with out money move, seeing what administration did subsequent is smart.

The plan is to shut a ‘vital’ quantity of Walgreens areas, assuming they’re unprofitable. Whereas this might liberate some money and reduce overhead bills, it received’t be sufficient to offset the unprofitable operations that lie on the coronary heart of the corporate.

As a result of Walgreens has no free money move, it can not fund its operations additional with out taking up debt or diluting shareholders. Due to this, the inventory’s 8.2% dividend yield ought to be nothing in need of a purple flag to buyers, a bait to keep away from.

Alternatively, right here’s what will be mentioned about CVS’s financials. The corporate’s newest quarterly outcomes present buyers working money move of $4.9 billion, leaving them with optimistic free money move even after $705 million in capital expenditures. What administration selected to do with this capital was additionally the fitting factor.

As much as $3 billion was put aside to repurchase inventory, compounding the upside results for current shareholders. This development should be why analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase noticed it match to increase CVS’s valuations to $86 a share, daring it to rally by 47.2% from the place it sits right this moment.

Now that the mud is settled, buyers can zoom out of this dramatic worth motion and discover themselves with the following neatest thing, Walgreens’ landlord Realty Revenue Co. NYSE: O, a actual property funding belief (REIT) recognized for paying month-to-month dividends as an alternative of quarterly.

The Greatest Revenue a Dip Can Purchase: Realty Revenue Inventory

As Walgreens’ landlord, Realty Revenue inventory is uncovered to the closure of a whole bunch of areas. Nonetheless, markets habitually exaggerate issues, so right here’s simply how uncovered they are surely.

In keeping with Realty Revenue’s newest quarter, the corporate solely derived 3.4% of its rental earnings from Walgreens. This isn’t vital sufficient to justify a greater than 1% sell-off in an in any other case low-volatility inventory.

When the market realizes how little this occasion means for Realty Revenue, will probably be too late for buyers to squeeze a possible low cost. Talking of reductions, the inventory’s valuation is so low that its annual dividend yield has jumped to six%, the best in firm historical past (excluding COVID sell-offs).

In keeping with these at Stifel Nicolaus, Realty Revenue inventory is value as much as $65 a share, daring it to rally by as a lot as 24% from the place it trades right this moment. Greater than that, Wall Avenue nonetheless expects to see 3.8% EPS progress in Realty Revenue this yr, maintaining with inflation and GDP progress.

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