Los Angeles residents are preparing to cast their votes Tuesday for the city’s next mayor. The race has gained significant attention, positioning itself as a pivotal event in the nation’s second-largest city. Should no candidate secure over 50% of the votes, the top two contenders will advance to a runoff in November.
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is projected to have a strong chance of making it to the second round, with traders on prediction market platform Kalshi giving her a 93% likelihood of advancement. Although Bass has led in public opinion polls, she has not reached the majority needed for an outright victory in the first round. Meanwhile, former reality TV star Spencer Pratt is considered a serious challenger, with a 75% chance of progressing. City Councilmember Nithya Raman is also in the running, although her prospects have dwindled to a 28% chance of advancing.
While Los Angeles mayoral elections are officially nonpartisan, Pratt is a registered Republican, whereas Bass and Raman are Democrats. Once favored to win, Raman’s odds have notably decreased from nearly 60% to 11% after a poor performance in a recent debate, a decline acknowledged by Pratt during a podcast appearance. He remarked on her significant drop in support, suggesting she lost her competitiveness in the race.
Despite concerns about her relatively low approval ratings following her response to wildfires in 2025, Bass is still favored to be reelected, with a 65% chance, while Pratt’s odds of winning the overall election sit at 25%.
Why this story matters
- The election outcome will influence urban policies in one of the largest cities in the U.S.
Key takeaway
- Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is favored to advance, but the competition remains tight, particularly with Spencer Pratt’s emergence.
Opposing viewpoint
- Pratt’s conservative stance could hinder his appeal in a predominantly Democratic city, despite his surge in popularity.
