Investors had high hopes for a wave of initial public offerings (IPOs) in 2026, particularly from high-profile companies such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. However, as the year progressed, enthusiasm has dwindled. OpenAI has now ruled out its public market debut for 2026, with several other anticipated IPOs postponed.
According to the prediction market platform Kalshi, Anthropic remains the only major company likely to announce an IPO this year. The company quietly submitted a prospectus to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in early June, leading to a 75% probability among traders that it will go public this year. In contrast, the financial technology company Plaid’s chances have decreased significantly from 50% in January to just 10%, despite a reported valuation of $8 billion. Similarly, Deel’s odds have dropped from 50% to a mere 3%, while Databricks’s chances have plummeted to 1%. OpenAI, once viewed as a strong candidate, now has only a 3% likelihood of announcing an IPO, as CEO Sam Altman expressed concerns regarding the timing of going public amid AI safety discussions.
Despite a notable increase in IPO proceeds driven by major debuts like SpaceX’s in June, the overall number of U.S. IPOs has declined by 33% compared to 2025, according to Renaissance Capital. Market sentiment towards promising AI companies has shifted as recent revenue figures from Anthropic highlighted a worrying slowdown in growth. Analysts have expressed concerns about whether companies can sustain the ambitious revenue targets previously set, further complicating the IPO landscape.
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