Two Democratic senators, Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland and Ron Wyden of Oregon, have raised concerns about prediction market event contracts related to clinical drug trials and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulatory approvals. In a letter addressed to Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the senators questioned the potential risks posed by these markets. They argued that allowing bets on the outcomes of drug trials undermines the integrity of the scientific process, creates harmful incentives for researchers, and could negatively impact trial participants, potentially jeopardizing medical outcomes for many Americans.
The senators highlighted worries expressed by healthcare professionals about how such markets might influence patient decisions regarding participation in clinical trials, as well as the possibility of insider trading among those with access to nonpublic information. They requested HHS to reveal any internal communications related to staff involvement with these prediction markets and discussions with market platforms, including the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates these contracts.
In their letter, Alsobrooks and Wyden stressed the importance of maintaining public trust in the drug development process and called for increased safeguards to prevent profit-driven motives in the approval of essential medications.
Kalshi and Polymarket are the main platforms offering these contracts. Kalshi has implemented measures to limit risks by focusing only on late-stage trials and verifying the identity of its traders. Kalshi’s CEO emphasized the need to provide accessible information in drug development, citing that the stakes in prediction markets are lower than those in traditional equity markets. Meanwhile, both Polymarket and HHS have yet to respond publicly to the senators’ concerns.
Why this story matters
Drug trial integrity could be compromised
Concerns extend beyond prediction markets
