My weekly column in Banyan Edge hardly ever covers politics, as you might have observed.
As an alternative, I choose to remain laser-focused on cash and markets (therefore the title of my publication). I’m right here to pinpoint probably life-changing investments that nobody else is reporting on.
If I can share even ONE nice funding that helps make you cash, that’s value greater than all of the speaking heads, political punditry and rancid headlines you’ll discover elsewhere.
On the identical time, it’s the federal government that prints our cash and drives our markets.
Authorities spending makes up over 36% of America’s whole financial exercise.
And subsequent week’s debate goes to be a crucial turning level for the way forward for our authorities.
As a result of for the primary time, former President Donald Trump will meet and focus on with Vice President Kamala Harris on the world stage.
The final debate on June 27 noticed a traditionally disastrous efficiency from sitting President Joe Biden, who subsequently withdrew from the race — leaving Vice President Harris with simply 100 days to make her case to American voters.
Harris and Trump have vastly totally different agendas and vastly totally different visions for the way forward for our nation.
The winner of November’s contest will information trillions in authorities spending for years to come back.
So despite the fact that we’re not protecting up-to-the-minute polling or marketing campaign information, we’re nonetheless paying very shut consideration to how the race is creating — and the affect it might have on your portfolio.
Right here’s what you’ll be able to anticipate throughout (and after) Tuesday’s debate and why it could result in an surprising “October Shock” for buyers…
The ONLY Situation that Issues to Voters
James Carville, aka “The Raging Cajun,” performed a key function in serving to Invoice Clinton win the election.
And Carville has all the time attributed that success to a single phrase that turned the motto of the marketing campaign. He had it tacked up on his wall within the marketing campaign headquarters:
“the economic system, silly…”
On the time, America was within the midst of a recession. And Clinton was working towards an incumbent who had an early benefit.
As an alternative of attempting to deal with each certainly one of America’s numerous issues, Carville targeted the marketing campaign on one concern: the economic system.
His message was so easy, so targeted and so persistent that it broke by way of to People all over the place.
Over the course of some months, the phrase turned the marketing campaign’s mantra. “It’s the economic system, silly” was its tongue-in-cheek rallying cry.
And it labored.
George H.W. Bush went from an approval score of 90% in March 1991 to a disapproval score of 64% by August 1992.
Thanks largely to Carville’s aggressive messaging, voters trusted Clinton to maintain their on a regular basis wants. And so, on that fateful day in November 1992, they made Bush a one-term president.
Quick-forward to in the present day, and we’re in an identical state of affairs…
Harris Pulls a Reversal on the Economic system
Entering into to the primary debate towards Biden, Trump had a transparent benefit on the economic system.
Voters clearly blamed Biden for inflation, and his marketing campaign’s intelligent catchphrases like “Bidenomics” by no means actually broke by way of just like the “I did that” stickers posted on fuel pumps subsequent to rising costs.
However voters appear to be altering their minds for Harris and Walz…
Trump’s once-substantial lead on the economic system has shrunk to only a few factors.
And now that inflation appears to be declining (with the Federal Reserve on observe to slash charges), People appear much less anxious about rising costs and authorities spending.
In the meantime, the Trump marketing campaign is taking a web page from Carville’s playbook and focusing squarely on hot-button financial points…
At a marketing campaign cease in Las Vegas, Trump introduced plans to probably cast off taxes on all tipped revenue. That form of coverage might make him an instantaneous alternative for tens of millions of service business staff searching for a windfall.
Trump has additionally proposed eliminating the federal revenue tax and changing it with a ten% tariff on imported items and establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve.
Will September’s Debate Result in an October Shock?
The traces listed here are clearly drawn…
Since Kamala Harris took over the Democratic ticket, she’s recovered the curiosity of key swing voters in polling and drawn the race to a useless warmth.
Over 51 million People watched the final debate. And since this would be the first time Harris squares off with Trump in particular person, we will anticipate much more viewers to tune on this time round.
So who will win?
Properly, Trump is Trump. He’s one of many greatest celebrities in fashionable historical past and a grasp entertainer on any stage.
In the meantime, Harris is a former Legal professional Common with a protracted historical past of profitable debates that almost all People don’t but find out about.
Previously, Trump’s strongest debate performances have concerned placing his opponents on the defensive. Harris received’t make that simple, so this must be an in depth one with loads of tit-for-tat.
However no matter which candidate wins on Tuesday, buyers are in for an “October Shock” like none we’ve ever seen earlier than.
Don’t fear, that is the good form of shock.
As a result of this October will probably be an excellent month for the inventory market as buyers race to remain forward of the election and money in on the most effective breakout investments of a brand new administration.
I’ll share extra specifics within the coming weeks.
However within the meantime, be sure you tune in and benefit from the present on Tuesday.
To good earnings,
Chief Funding Strategist, Cash & Markets
