Apollo Global’s Chief Economist, Torsten Slok, has expressed skepticism regarding the predicted impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) on macroeconomic indicators such as productivity, employment, and inflation. In a recent commentary, he referenced economist Robert Solow’s observation from the 1980s about computers’ visibility in the economy but their absence in productivity data. Slok likened this sentiment to the current landscape of AI, asserting that despite its integration into various sectors, tangible benefits are not yet reflected in economic statistics.
He noted that while the excitement surrounding AI continues, particularly with advancements in chatbots, the stock market has reacted negatively, particularly for sectors like wealth management and logistics that are heavily exposed to AI technologies. Although some industry leaders, like Anthropic’s Dario Amodei and Elon Musk, anticipate significant economic growth facilitated by AI, Slok remains unconvinced. He suggested that the economic potential of AI might evolve over time, positing a possible J-curve effect where benefits become more apparent after a delay.
Slok pointed out that, unlike the 1980s computing revolution, the current competitive landscape among AI developers has driven down costs for consumers, complicating the evaluation of AI’s macroeconomic outcomes. Research from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and the Congressional Budget Office forecasts modest annual gains in productivity attributable to AI, indicating a gradual impact over the next decade. The CBO has also noted that while AI applications may enhance business efficiency, the job market’s stagnation poses questions about AI’s immediate effects.
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