As a severe winter storm impacts major U.S. cities, prediction markets are actively engaging in bets on snowfall totals. Significant wagering is occurring, particularly in New York City, where over $700,000 has been placed on Polymarket. Current predictions estimate a 47% chance of total snowfall between 10 and 12 inches, with data sourced from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for market resolution.
In Washington, D.C., bettors on a similar contract assign a 56% probability to snowfall totals of between 5 and 7 inches. On Kalshi, forecasts suggest a 98% likelihood of New York City receiving over 10 inches, with approximately $3.7 million wagered on this outcome.
There are ethical considerations surrounding these betting platforms, as concerns have arisen about profiting from natural disasters. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has acknowledged the sensitivity of this issue.
The blizzard has caused widespread disruption, knocking out electricity for tens of thousands and leading to significant travel issues. According to FlightAware, there were over 12,000 canceled flights and more than 20,000 delays nationwide on Sunday. In response to the crisis, President Donald Trump has issued federal emergency disaster declarations for multiple states, including South Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee, as predictions indicate that snow, sleet, and freezing rain will affect the eastern two-thirds of the country in the days ahead.
Why this story matters
- It highlights the intersection of weather prediction and financial speculation during natural disasters.
Key takeaway
- Active wagering on snowfall totals reveals how individuals engage with prediction markets, even amidst crises.
Opposing viewpoint
- Some criticize betting on natural disasters as ethically questionable, arguing it profites from human suffering.
