There shall be gentle on the finish of the tunnel

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FIFI PETERS: Let’s transfer on to developments concerning load shedding. Earlier on at this time the electrical energy minister gave his a common replace on the state of affairs regarding load shedding proper now, saying that good progress is being made within the power disaster, and reiterating that South Africa had turned the nook though it was not but out of the woods.

Now we have unbiased power analyst Chris Yelland for extra on this. Chris, thanks a lot on your time. Do you agree with the minister’s evaluation of issues proper now on the ability scenario – that we’ve got turned the nook?

CHRIS YELLAND: Properly, we really feel every single day that there’s an enchancment, and the numbers present simply that. In case you have been to take a look at the power availability issue final 12 months and evaluate it to this 12 months, you’ll see that the distinction between final 12 months and this 12 months has been lowering. In different phrases, firstly of this 12 months, for a similar interval as final 12 months, the power availability issue was a lot decrease this 12 months.

However as months have progressed the power availability issue this 12 months has improved, to the extent that final week the power availability issue this 12 months – for that week – was about the identical as the identical interval the earlier 12 months. So we at the moment are again to the scenario the place we have been a 12 months in the past. In different phrases, issues have improved to the state of what they have been final 12 months.

Now, final 12 months wasn’t 12 months, however the enchancment may be very noticeable and we will really feel it. So it’s not simply what we really feel, however it’s additionally within the numbers.

FIFI PETERS: Final 12 months we basically had the best variety of energy cuts on report. It topped what occurred within the earlier 12 months. This 12 months, previous to Minister Kgosientso Ramokgopa’s entry into the portfolio of electrical energy minister, we had worse load shedding than in 2022 – though 2023 shouldn’t be over.

However I need to circle again to a number of the feedback that he made, Chris. He basically implied that load shedding might quickly be executed in South Africa. I need to know if you happen to agree with that – that it’s one thing that we might quickly be taking a look at as one thing of the previous?

CHRIS YELLAND: Simply to return to your level, you’re completely proper. The load shedding dates this 12 months, the variety of hours of load shedding this 12 months, is considerably worse than it was final 12 months. However over the interval of this 12 months, beginning with a really unhealthy scenario, it has improved week by week by week – to the extent the place the power availability issue now is identical because it was this time final 12 months.

However for that first interval of the 12 months, we have been worse off than final 12 months. And there are extra hours misplaced to load shedding this 12 months, at this time, than the entire of final 12 months.

So issues this 12 months should not higher than final 12 months, however we’ve got improved – and that’s pattern. If we supply on enhancing, then we are going to see issues enhancing subsequent 12 months.

I do assume that there was a visual distinction, an enormous distinction. And I feel the minister has adopted a really attention-grabbing method which I feel is the proper method. That isn’t to easily concentrate on one [thing]. So, for instance, they’ve [put] a variety of effort into enhancing the efficiency of Eskom’s fleet. However on the identical time they’re engaged on a complete lot of latest technology alternatives.

For instance, the renewable power IPP [independent power producer] programme has nonetheless to bear fruit, however there may be some progress there. The non-public sector involvement in technology capability has proved very important on the utility scale, photo voltaic PV and wind, in addition to medium-sized and business and even home and residential farming installations. That can be bearing fruit.

The wheeling of energy, buying and selling of electrical energy and self-generation are all coming to the fore and making an enormous distinction.

On the identical time, they wish to delay the shutdown of previous coal energy stations the place doable, and in addition to make use of open-cycle fuel generators which are diesel pushed – the place completely vital.

Now, a mixture of all of those components coming collectively – the method that I discover attention-grabbing – is not only counting on one or different method. It’s a mixed method of many, many alternative components.

FIFI PETERS: Form of like investments when it comes to not placing all of your eggs in a single basket, diversifying the technique, it could appear.

Chris, thanks a lot on your time. We’ll depart it there. Chris Yelland is an unbiased power analyst. We must always actually watch the developments at Eskom and whether or not the present technique after all will proceed.

We do know that there’s a brand new chair coming in on the finish of the month, as the present chair is marking his depart discover – Mpho Makwana tendered his resignation early on within the month to get replaced by Mteto Nyati. It’ll be an attention-grabbing house to look at.