United Airlines has announced the potential for record earnings this year, driven by strong demand for travel. The company projects adjusted earnings per share between $12 and $14, closely aligning with the $13.16 anticipated by analysts. For the first quarter of 2026, United expects per-share earnings in the range of $1 to $1.50, while market expectations sit at $1.13.
The airline’s optimistic outlook aligns with that of its competitor, Delta Air Lines, indicating robust profitability across the U.S. airline industry. Both airlines contributed significantly to overall industry profits during the first nine months of 2025, with the remainder of the sector slated to share their results later this month.
Despite a 1.6% decline in unit revenue during the fourth quarter compared to the previous year, United reported a 9% increase in premium revenue for the same period and an 11% rise for the full year in comparison to 2024. The carrier’s basic-economy ticket sales surged by 7% in the last quarter of 2025, indicating a competitive response to lower-cost airlines.
United’s fourth-quarter profit grew 6% year-over-year, reaching $1.04 billion, or $3.19 per share. Overall capacity increased by 6.5%, contributing to this growth. The company faced challenges, including a $250 million impact from the longest government shutdown, which affected bookings due to air traffic controller shortages. Nevertheless, adjusted full-year earnings for 2025 reached $10.20 per share, an 8% increase year-over-year.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby remains optimistic about the airline’s growth trajectory, citing strong customer preference for their services.
Why this story matters
- Highlights the recovery and growth trends in the airline industry post-pandemic.
Key takeaway
- United Airlines is anticipating strong earnings driven by premium and basic-economy ticket sales.
Opposing viewpoint
- Challenges, such as government shutdowns and air traffic control issues, could impact future profitability.
