New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is facing his first significant electoral test since taking office in November 2025. While he is not on the ballot, his endorsements could significantly influence outcomes in three key congressional primaries. Mamdani has publicly supported former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander in the 10th District, Assemblymember Claire Valdez in the 7th District, and first-time candidate Darializa Avila Chevalier in the 13th District.
Speculation regarding the candidates’ chances is active on prediction market platform Kalshi. Traders estimate Lander and Valdez have a 54% probability of winning their respective races, while Chevalier is projected to face more challenges, with only a 28% chance of all three candidates securing victories. Lander’s campaign is notable as he seeks to unseat Democratic incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman, who has faced criticism from progressives over his stance on Israel.
In the 7th District, Valdez is attempting to succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez, although she is competing against Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, who has received an endorsement from Velázquez and backing from the progressive Working Families Party. In the 13th District, Chevalier is looking to unseat incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat, who chairs the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Kalshi traders believe Espaillat holds a two-in-three chance of winning.
In a separate but noteworthy primary in the 12th District, which encompasses parts of Manhattan, Mamdani chose not to endorse a candidate. Assemblyman Alex Bores, known for supporting AI regulations, faces significant financial opposition, with major super PACs backing rival Micah Lasher, who is currently favored to win with a 74% probability on the Kalshi platform.
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