United Airlines has adjusted its earnings outlook for 2026 in response to rising jet fuel prices influenced by the ongoing conflict in Iran. The company now projects earnings of $7 to $11 per share on an adjusted basis, a decrease from its previous estimate of $12 to $14 per share announced in January, prior to military actions in the region. To manage costs, United plans to reduce its scheduled flights.
Analysts had anticipated adjusted earnings of $9.58 per share for the year. For the second quarter, United forecasts adjusted earnings of $1 to $2 per share, falling short of analysts’ expectations of $2.08. The company expects jet fuel prices to average $4.30 per gallon during this period. Additionally, it aims to offset the increased fuel costs, projecting that revenue will cover 40% to 50% of the hike in the second quarter, up to 80% in the third quarter, and between 85% and 100% by year-end.
Despite these challenges, United reported strong first-quarter results, with a net income increase of 80%, amounting to $699 million. Revenue rose over 10% to $14.61 billion, surpassing expectations. The airline has seen growth in unit revenue across all reported segments, particularly in domestic flights, which exhibited a 7.9% increase.
CEO Scott Kirby emphasized the resilience of United’s long-term strategy amid rising fuel costs during the earnings announcements. While demand remains robust, airlines have been increasing fares and fees to manage costs. Competition remains intense, as evidenced by Alaska Airlines’ recent withdrawal of its 2026 forecast due to similar fuel price pressures.
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