Traders at the New York Stock Exchange are observing a mixed outlook for the Nasdaq-100, which has risen approximately 18% in 2026. Despite this growth, participants on the prediction market platform Kalshi are wary of significant further gains. Current odds suggest a 50% chance that the index will close the year above 30,000, a level it first surpassed in late May, with midday trading showing it nearly 1% below this threshold.
The rise of the Nasdaq-100, which includes the 100 largest non-financial stocks listed on Nasdaq, was propelled by a 33% increase from March 30, following a dip caused by geopolitical tensions related to the Iran war. Renewed confidence in artificial intelligence investments significantly boosted the index. However, current sentiments indicate that traders believe the momentum may be waning. A separate contract suggests only a 40% likelihood that the index will reach 32,000, while the probability of exceeding 33,000 stands at a low 27%.
In a notable analysis, UBS expressed optimism about the broader market rally continuing into the latter half of the year, but indicated that technology may no longer lead this growth. Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS’s chief investment officer for the Americas, stated that investors are beginning to diversify their interests beyond technology as they reassess future phases of the AI trade. She emphasized confidence in AI’s potential while suggesting a shift in market leadership might emerge.
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